2019 Virginia Election Recap
Takeaways:
A historic shift to Democratic control of both legislative chambers, the Senate and House of Delegates
Healthcare will remain a top issue, as Virginia continues implementation of Medicaid expansion and its benefits, costs and work requirements.
Healthcare access, coverage and cost will also be at the forefront.
Other hot button issues likely to be tackled by the new majority include gun control, abortion rights, LGBT protections, ratification of the Equal Rights Amendment, and pro-labor measures such as increasing the minimum wage and reconsidering Virginia’s right-to-work laws that restrict union membership and dues.
Democratic Governor Ralph Northam will also feel newly empowered as he adjusts to unified government and his administration prepares to submit its full budget to the General Assembly and for the next legislative session in January.
The Report
Yesterday’s General Assembly elections resulted in a historic shift after more than 25 years of Republican control of at least one chamber of the state legislature, leading to unified control by the Democratic Party of the executive and legislative branches of Virginia government.
Virginia’s “off-off year” state legislative elections, when all 140 seats of the General Assembly are on the ballot, are usually sleepy, low-turnout affairs that benefit the incumbent party. But this year, hotly contested and competitive races throughout the Commonwealth drew often unprecedented fundraising, spending, media and national attention.
With control of both chambers of the state legislature at stake, we closely followed the race as Republicans in the House of Delegates and Senate of Virginia defended their slim majorities from what Democrats hoped would be another “blue wave” similar to the 2017 and 2018 elections that began to reverse decades of Republican dominance in Virginia’s delegations.
Democrats’ hopes appear to be fulfilled. Turnout was unusually high, nearly matching statewide gubernatorial levels. In a somewhat surprising twist, the House of Delegates proved to be more favorable ground for Democrats than the Senate of Virginia. As of this writing, Democrats appear to have gained six seats in the House of Delegates and two seats in the Senate, with several seats in recount territory. We will provide updates as too-close-to-call races are decided.
Senate of Virginia
Republicans were defending their 20-19 (1 vacancy) majority. Widely expected to flip, the race for control of the Senate ended being closer than anticipated. The campaign focused on five competitive races in Virginia Beach, Greater Richmond, and Northern Virginia. As of this report, Democrats have picked up two seats, with two races remaining too close to call or within recount territory. However, because Democratic Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax breaks tie votes in the Senate, control of the upper chamber is poised to indeed switch from a Republican to Democratic majority.
When Democrats take control of the Senate, current Minority Leader Senator Dick Saslaw should become Majority Leader. Senator Tommy Norment, the current Majority Leader, was re-elected and will need to decide whether he wishes to run for Minority Leader within his caucus.
Incumbents Who Lost (1):
SD10: Glen Sturtevant (R-Midlothian)
Open Seats Previously Held by Republicans and Won by Democrats (1):
SD13: John Bell (D), winner; Geary Higgins (R); Dick Black (R-Leesburg), incumbent not running
Net Change on Election Day: Democrats +2
Possible Recounts or Undecided Seats (1):
SD7: Jen Kiggans (R), apparent winner; Cheryl Turpin (D); Frank Wagner (R-Virginia Beach), incumbent not running
Expected 2020 Partisan Composition as of Election Day: 21 Democrats, 19 Republicans
House of Delegates
Considered to be a tossup heading into Election Day, several factors were at play in determining control of the 100-seat House of Delegates, which nearly flipped unexpectedly from a 66-seat to 51-seat Republican majority after the 2017 elections. A subsequent Supreme Court decision that found certain district maps to be unconstitutional affected 25 House districts, making many formerly safe Republican seats more competitive. Combined with retirements and an unusually contested environment, Democrats were hopeful they could wrestle control.
Although many pundits considered the House of Delegates outcome to be a tossup, Democrats appear to have picked up 6 seats, resulting in a 55-45 Democratic majority pending several close races that may head into a recount.
The biggest news on election night is that current Republican Speaker Kirk Cox has been re-elected after being redistricted into a much more competitive district. On the other hand, Delegate Chris Jones, the powerful chairman of the Appropriations Committee, lost decisively after his district lines were redrawn into a heavily Democratic district.
The new Democratic House caucus will need to choose a Speaker to replace Delegate Cox. Current Minority Leader Eileen Filler-Corn is viewed as the front runner for the post, but several House members have indicated interest in the top job or other leadership positions, so internal jockeying will no doubt ensue. Delegate Lashrecse Aird (D-Petersburg), a member of the Virginia Legislative Black Caucus, has announced she intends to challenge Filler-Corn for the Speakership.
Incumbents Who Lost (4):
HD40: Tim Hugo (R-Centreville)
HD76: Chris Jones (R-Suffolk)
HD83: Chris Stolle (R-Virginia Beach)
HD94: David Yancey (R-Virginia Beach)
Open Seats Previously Held by Republicans and Won by Democrats (2):
HD28: Joshua Cole (D), winner; Paul Milde (R); Bob Thomas (R-Stafford), incumbent not running
HD91: Martha Mugler (D), winner; Colleen Holcomb (R); Gordon Helsel (R-Poquoson), incumbent not running
Net Change on Election Day: Democrats +6
Possible Recounts or Undecided Seats (3):
HD27: Roxann Robinson (R-Chesterfield)
HD75: Roslyn Tyler (D-Jarratt)
HD83: Chris Stolle (R-Virginia Beach)
Expected 2020 Partisan Composition as of Election Day: 55 Democrats, 45 Republicans
2020 Outlook
With Democrats now poised to gain control of the General Assembly with unified government under Democratic Governor Ralph Northam, we can formulate predictions on the policy areas that the new majority party will prioritize.
Democrats will likely feel empowered to pursue a mandate for change. Healthcare will remain a top issue, as Virginia continues implementation of Medicaid expansion and its benefits, costs and work requirements. Healthcare access, coverage and cost will also be at the forefront.
Other hot button issues likely to be tackled by the new majority include gun safety, abortion rights, LGBT protections, ratification of the Equal Rights Amendment, and pro-labor measures such as increasing the minimum wage and reconsidering Virginia’s right-to-work laws that currently restrict union membership and dues.
Democratic Governor Ralph Northam will also feel newly empowered as he adjusts to unified government and his administration prepares to submit its full budget to the General Assembly and for the next legislative session in January.
We will continue to monitor any outstanding races and provide updates as additional results unfold. CSG has been prepared for election outcomes and are ready to work with new and returning General Assembly members.
For a full results breakdown of yesterday’s contested races, visit www.vpap.org. While you’re there, donate to their cause.
See the full coverage in the Richmond Times-Dispatch.
